Editor's Note: The following was written by Rochester Electronics in collaboration with Octopart.

An executive’s view on long lead times

The semiconductor market is shifting from a period of overstocking, into elongated lead times, shortages, and potential allocation - What does this mean for you, the customer?

The semiconductor industry can be notoriously cyclical. Since the founding of Rochester Electronics in 1981, we can recall approximately 19 industry cycles of varying magnitude. 

The reason for each cycle can be different.  They all tend to start abruptly and end abruptly, certainly it can feel that way.

There is an increasing tone in our industry that we are about to enter a constrained market.  More and more articles on this topic are surfacing describing issues directly affecting the automotive manufacturers, as an example. As such, we may begin to see a broader trickle-down effect as the same components often have many homes.

A key difference of this potential shift, it is not set against a booming global economy. In fact, quite the opposite. In our current unprecedented environment, it is even more challenging to predict the outcome. Will it be ultra-short-term, quickly followed by (often-seen) overstocking, set against weak economic demand, resulting in a market decline?  Or will it be protracted and exacerbated by a strong demand profile based on global economic recovery, as a result of overcoming COVID?  

In reality, much is out of our control. However, I’m sure we are all hoping for the swift end to COVID and a return to normality including economic growth and job creation. 

Let’s talk about what we can control.

It is at times like these when “bad actors” introduce themselves into the market to take advantage of buyers who feel they have no place to turn.  Substandard and counterfeit products begin to surface placing unsuspecting buyers’ in potential high-risk situations. Avoid this risk by only purchasing active and/or end-of-life components from fully authorized sources, like Rochester Electronics.

Fully authorized distributors are compliant with the SAE Aerospace Standard, AS6496.  Simply stated, they are authorized by the Original Component Manufacturer (OCM) to provide traceable and guaranteed products with no quality or reliability testing required because the parts are sourced from the OCM. 

Those providers who are not fully authorized, market themselves as AS6171/4 compliant. This source, though better than no compliance, follows standardized inspections and test procedures with minimum training and certification requirements to detect suspect or counterfeit components. This is an indication the parts are not sourced to the supplier from the OCM, but have passed testing to minimize, not eliminate risk.

Remember, when the stakes are high don’t be fooled by counterfeit products – buy Authorized.

- Colin Strother, Executive Vice President, Rochester Electronics